By Ryan Boyle

Despite the many advances in scheduling and meeting technology, an old-fashioned calendar has never lost its utility.  Our team starts every week with a discussion that includes a mention of important events and data releases in the days ahead.  As we begin the new year, we wanted to take this opportunity to share some critical dates for policymaking the United States.

The center of attention will be Donald Trump returning to office on January 20.  We expect his first order of business will be a slew of executive orders, likely to include tighter immigration standards, more trade restrictions and lighter regulation of sectors like energy and finance.  The newly-seated Senate will begin confirmation hearings for Trump’s Cabinet nominees before inauguration, allowing some of them to take office in short order.

Fiscal deadlines will be top of mind throughout the year.  The government is currently operating under a continuing resolution (CR) through March 14; automatic budget cuts will take effect April 30 if the nation is still operating without new spending authorization. 

On January 2, the debt ceiling returned to force after a 19-month suspension.  The Treasury currently cannot issue any net new debt.  Fortunately, the Treasury General Account (TGA), which is used to make payments, started the year at a flush $677 billion; the TGA will be bolstered by corporate tax payments and the deadline for annual personal income tax collections on April 15.  However, at some point in the summer (no later than August), the national account will reach an “x-date” on which Treasury runs out of money and enters technical default.

The debt ceiling was the crux of the disagreement that brought Washington within hours of a shutdown late last year.  Under unified control, finding a way forward to raise or suspend the debt limit should be less contentious than the showdowns seen under divided government.  But time is of the essence. 

Current rumors suggest that Congress will try for one large-scope reconciliation bill that addresses taxes, border enforcement, a full 2025 budget and the debt ceiling, all in one go.  Most provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire December 31, reverting the tax code to its pre-2017 structure.  A majority of Congress agrees that TCJA should be at least partially extended, but hashing out the specifics will not be simple.

Negotiating and drafting so many details, with a narrow legislative majority in the House, will be a long and arduous undertaking.  Legislation may devolve into piecemeal solutions, especially if the TGA falls to dangerously low levels.

Through it all, the usual economic calendar will tick along.  Monthly reports of employment and inflation will inform decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee every six weeks.  Our publication calendar will be a busy one.