Hi, I'm Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist for Northern Trust. The most popular economic article I have ever written was a cautionary tale about the national debt of the United States. I warned that it was on a troubling trajectory and implored policymakers to take corrective action before it was too late.

I thought the content was well-constructed. But that wasn't the reason that the piece was so popular. The essay was phrased as an open letter to my baby daughter about the financial future she and others of her generation might face. The inclusion of a cute picture of her crawling around our family room floor was a blatant attempt to boost ratings. And it worked.

Nostalgia sets in when I remember that piece. Both the baby and America's fiscal position were relative innocence back then. My daughter was 10 months old, and the federal debt was just over $5 trillion. The former is now in her mid 20s, and the total national debt stands at a staggering $33 trillion.

The level of concern about the size and sustainability of US debt has increased substantially this year. The deficit for fiscal year 2023 is projected to be around $2 trillion, an unusually large amount during a period of strong economic growth. Rising interest rates make the cost of carrying the debt much more significant. And political dysfunction in Washington raises serious questions about the soundness of fiscal policy.

The good news is that the United States has the means to manage its debts. We are a wealthy country with a strong economy. But projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the national debt will quadruple over the next 15 years thanks in the main to the impact of an aging population and rising interest costs. If this forecast is realized, it could test the willingness of international investors to own Treasury securities and jeopardize the US dollar standing as the world's reserve currency.

Bending the deficit curve will almost certainly require a combination of sizable revenue enhancements and spending curbs. The former involves tax increases. And the latter will require review of entitlement programs.

To put it mildly, neither is politically popular. But kicking the can further down the road is a losing strategy. It's difficult to pinpoint when a tipping point might be reached. Once passed, however, the dissent would be hard to arrest. Best to address the situation while we still have some modicum of control.

A new baby entered my life this summer. My grandson is perfect in every way. And I hope for only the best things for him. But I do worry that the fiscal situation he will inherit may narrow his path to prosperity. He and others of his generation deserve better. And that's the view from here.