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Empowering AI
Chief Economist Carl Tannenbaum discusses how the megatrends of artificial intelligence and the green transition are on a collision course.
Hi, I'm Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist for Northern Trust. I recently noticed something new on the social media platforms that I use. As I compose each post, I am asked if I want to sharpen the message by using artificial intelligence, or AI. Just to see how it worked, I agreed to do so on one occasion.
A simple message about the job market was transformed into a Marxian manifesto decrying the tyranny of capital over labor. I couldn't hit the undo key fast enough. Much as we might try, though, we are unlikely to escape the impact of AI. The time, attention and money that is being devoted to its development are all substantial.
Another significant input to the transformation is electricity. According to the International Energy Agency, a simple ChatGPT query uses 10 times more power than a simple Google search. High-end analytics and machine learning perform billions of calculations in short spaces of time. Collecting and organizing the data required is also computationally intensive.
The infrastructure required to support the process, centers filled with servers bearing sophisticated microchips, requires an immense amount of electricity. Aside from the needs of the engines, advanced cooling systems are needed to prevent them from overheating. Construction of new data centers is at a fever pitch.
Rental rates for space at existing facilities are escalating at an annual pace of close to 20%. Stress on power grids has consequently been increasing. Shortages of commodities, like copper and water, are directly attributable to the headlong drive to expand computing power.
In the United States, fossil fuels, primarily natural gas, account for 60% of energy generation. Nuclear and renewables both hover around 20%. In the short-term then, we'll need a good deal more gas-fueled capacity. This will require more investment in a source that generates mixed feelings among investors and consumers.
In other parts of the world, coal-fired power plants have been employed to feed the demands of technology. Their carbon footprint is not very good. These developments put AI on a collision course with another economic megatrend, which is adapting to climate change. Reconciling the two carries a very high degree of difficulty.
Some suggest a physician heal thyself approach. Why not let AI loose on the problem? Asking it to design optimal data center structure and manage peaks and troughs of power demand. AI could also potentially examine itself. There may be ways to make the algorithms that run large language models more efficient.
I will be doing my part to address the problem. After my unfortunate experience with the labor market comment, I will not be using AI again any time soon. It may not save a lot of electricity, but every little bit helps. And that's the view from here.
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