Hi. I'm Ryan Boyle, Chief US Economist for Northern Trust. Here in the United States, we often ask new acquaintances where they are from. This serves as an invitation to share a brief outline of their heritage. With few exceptions, the stories involve people in our lineage who made the bold decision to pick up and move here. The tales of immigrant triumph never fail to inspire. 

But tension about immigration is also a long-running thread in American history, and those worries are elevated again today. A flow of newcomers is a constant component of the United States labor market. Before the pandemic, the US would issue about 500,000 work-eligible immigrant visas per year. Undocumented immigration has always been a factor, whether from evading security at a border crossing or legal temporary visitors overstaying their official welcomes. 

Though variable and difficult to measure, estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants have entered the United States during the century. COVID-19 changed border policy. During the emergency, all attempted land crossings led to immediate expulsion. The flow of immigration, legal or otherwise, fell precipitously. The lack of new entrants compounded the labor shortages that prevailed during the post-pandemic years. With health risks falling and job vacancies rising, the borders reopened and a flood ensued. 

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that there were 3.2 million new arrivals in 2023, about four times the usual flow. Rather than evading federal law enforcement agents, new arrivals presented themselves and asked for asylum on humanitarian grounds. Asylum claims have never been used to this extent, and immigration courts tasked with considering them now have a backlog exceeding five years. 

While they await adjudication, these new arrivals are granted a temporary work authorization. We are already seeing the impact of this in areas such as health care, construction, and hospitality-- the exact sectors that have faced shortages since the pandemic. But the sheer numbers and the disorder surrounding the recent surge have intensified calls for containment. Some have called for another complete border closure and even deportation of new arrivals. But this would upset the labor market just as it is finding its balance. 

Arrivals at the border have fallen from their 2023 peak, as executive orders reduced eligibility for asylum, and Mexico provided more support to curtail northbound migration. But piecemeal measures will only set the stage for future crises. We need to make the nation more resilient by looking at immigration more strategically. 

My family name descends from Ireland. While life is comfortable for my generation, our history includes conflict, famine, and forced migration. We overcame these challenges and achieved the American dream. Today, others share that dream. But the manner and numbers in which they have been arriving recently is not the best for them or for the country. As we contemplate reform, we will do well to keep this in mind.