4. The Politics of Technology
Digitalization is changing the way in which information is disseminated and used. The promise of improved productivity will be tempered by concerns over worker displacement and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to mislead.
Countries and companies have little choice but to embrace AI: it offers hope of containing inflation, maintaining output and sustaining debt. But the potential for worker displacement will foment labor resistance. Work stoppages may become more common in the years ahead, and income inequality could grow.
Development will proceed rapidly in environments with the fewest restrictions, but this raises the risk that data will be misappropriated and misused. Cybercrime and espionage have reached new levels of sophistication and may progress faster than defenses designed to defeat them.
Information asymmetries have been widening, as social media allows participants to assemble and reinforce their own versions of the news. The potential for AI to create and disseminate misinformation could further the polarization of popular opinion. Policy consensus would become more difficult to achieve, and AI-driven propaganda efforts could upset legal and societal norms.
Finally, the digitalization of finance will give rise to product and market innovations that may be difficult to regulate. Systemic risk could rise, raising the possibility of another financial crisis.
Properly channeled, anxiety can help prepare for the worst and create plenty of space for positive surprises. But it can also become all-consuming, leading to over-analysis and risk aversion. We’ll try to strike the right balance as we cover these themes for you in the quarters ahead.
Now if you will excuse me, I need to spend some time in my happy place. If I could only remember where that is…